The global shrimp market is forecast to witness mixed trends in 2026, with shifts in trade flows and changes in production across regions. Ecuador is expected to maintain strong export growth driven by stable output and recovering demand from China, while India’s exports face pressure from United States import tariffs, prompting exporters to focus on market and product diversification. In the United States, import volumes may shift toward alternative suppliers if trade tensions with India persist, while demand in Europe is projected to remain stable with a growing preference for semi–value-added products.
Ecuador’s Exports Are Expected to Increase
Ecuador’s shrimp industry is projected to record strong growth after production in 2025 reached a high level, recovering from relatively stable export volumes in 2024. Favorable weather conditions in the first half of the year, with warm and stable temperatures, supported higher output and increased export potential. However, since September, cooler conditions caused by La Niña have begun to affect production; this trend is forecast to continue through December and possibly into early 2026.
According to data from Ecuador’s National Fisheries Authority, from January to October, Ecuador exported 1.15 million tons of shrimp, up 15.5% compared to the same period of the previous year. Of this total, China accounted for 48.18% of Ecuador’s shrimp exports, followed by the United States at 19.42%, and European countries with a combined share of 22.89%.
Ecuador’s shrimp exports are expected to conclude 2025 with double-digit growth, recovering from the 0.2% decline recorded in 2024 when total export volume reached 1.21 million tons. Production is forecast to remain at a high level in 2026.
On the demand side, exporters are optimistic about the recovery of the Chinese market due to government stimulus efforts. Although restocking activities have taken place, shrimp prices have not been affected. In contrast, European importers report high inventory levels, leading to slower transactions and stable prices. As most buyers have already completed purchases for year-end, further price increases may be limited.
In the United States, buyers remain cautious amid uncertainty regarding import tariffs. Ecuador and the United States have recently announced a trade framework that includes reciprocal tariff reductions and the easing of non-tariff barriers; however, the timeline for the application of shrimp tariffs remains unclear. Currently, Ecuadorian products face a general 15% tariff in the United States, along with countervailing duties ranging from 3.57% to 4.41%.
According to a statement issued by the White House on 13 November 2025, “The United States is committed to eliminating reciprocal tariffs on certain exports from Ecuador that cannot be produced domestically in sufficient quantities.”
Tariff Pressures Weigh on India’s Exports
India’s shrimp export outlook for 2026 remains uncertain due to prolonged trade tensions with the United States. Although India’s exports of whiteleg shrimp increased by 9% year-on-year, reaching 455,244 tons from January to September 2025, industry sources warn that the 2026 outlook will be challenging in the absence of an agreement to reduce United States import tariffs.
An exporter in Visakhapatnam stated: “We were fortunate that the U.S. tariffs took effect during the low season here,” adding that without a trade agreement before the end of the year, India’s shrimp industry could incur significant losses.
U.S. tariff policies have significantly affected India’s shrimp industry, as 40% of total exports are directed to this market. Farm-gate shrimp prices in India recovered in September after declining sharply in August following the imposition of U.S. tariffs amid supply constraints. However, the value of peeled shrimp declined substantially due to the tariffs. The average price of peeled and processed shrimp under the Platts FCA India index in October was USD 6,912 per ton, down 7% compared to the same period last year. Markets such as the United States and the EU primarily purchase peeled and value-added shrimp from India, and prices are heavily dependent on these markets.
Indian exporters acknowledge that in 2026, the industry cannot rely on a single market; market and product diversification is essential. Mr. K. N. Raghavan, Secretary General of the Seafood Exporters Association of India, stated: “Currently, less than 10% of the export basket consists of value-added products. Focusing on this segment will open new markets and generate higher returns.”
Exporters are expected to place greater focus on markets such as the EU, Russia, Southeast Asia, and China in the coming year.
Shrimp production in India is expected to continue increasing despite the challenges posed by United States tariffs. Although there were concerns that some farmers would switch to farming other shrimp species due to low market prices following the imposition of tariffs, the recovery in prices has encouraged them to remain in the sector, according to a trader in Nellore. Some farmers have even shifted to farming black tiger shrimp due to higher prices; however, they do not anticipate a decline in overall production.
According to data from Energy CERA, India produced 1.18 million tons of whiteleg shrimp in 2024, and output is estimated to increase by 6% to 1.25 million tons by 2026.
U.S. Imports Shift Due to Tariffs
The U.S. shrimp import market in 2026 will be shaped by tariff discussions with India. A significant tariff reduction could restore prices to early-2025 levels and ensure strong supply from India. Conversely, if tariffs remain around 60%, India’s shrimp production could collapse, affecting global shrimp trade.
The U.S. market witnessed major changes in the second half of 2025 when high tariffs on Indian shrimp enabled Ecuador to gain market share. A base tariff rate of 50% on Indian shrimp led to a sharp decline in imports. An Indian exporter stated: “You cannot sell with a 50% tariff.” Many U.S. importers purchased the required volumes in advance before the tariff increase, resulting in slower activity in the fourth quarter, particularly for peeled and deveined shrimp—the segment traditionally supplied by India. A U.S. importer commented: “The only shrimp coming from India is small-sized peeled fresh and cooked shrimp, as other countries cannot produce small shrimp at reasonable cost.”
Meanwhile, importers and distributors face higher replacement costs and are seeking alternative sources from Ecuador, Vietnam, and Indonesia. However, analysts cited by the Financial Times note that substitution does not occur immediately, as India dominates the production of peeled shrimp and possesses superior processing capacity.
Demand in the EU Is Expected to Increase
The EMEA shrimp market—Europe, the Middle East, and Africa—is projected to remain stable in 2026, with demand increasingly focused on semi-processed and value-added products, particularly in Europe. Buyers in Northern and Central Europe are showing a preference for products such as individually quick frozen (IQF), peeled, deveined, and easy-peel shrimp, while whole head-on shrimp are gradually losing popularity in retail markets.
This trend has strengthened Ecuador’s competitive position, with many suppliers expanding capacity for semi-processed products to meet European market requirements. Ecuador is expected to maintain its leading position as a supplier to Europe, while India remains relatively stable in second place. No major changes in the supply structure are anticipated; however, free trade agreements among Asian countries may slightly affect delivery costs from certain origins. A European importer stated: “Ecuador is stronger in semi-processed product lines, and that is the segment where Europe is growing. Other countries may compete on raw materials, but not on consistency.”
Shrimp demand in the EU is forecast to remain stable with moderate growth, supported by retail programs and steady foodservice demand. However, the import growth recorded in 2025 is unlikely to be repeated unless inventories are cleared more quickly than expected. Traders note that 2025 volumes were largely driven by advance purchasing due to tariffs rather than genuine consumption growth. A second source commented: “What happens in 2026 depends entirely on inventories. If cold storage is full at year-end, buyers will slow down.”
Prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in early 2026, with upward movements limited unless inventories tighten. Seasonal purchasing patterns will persist, but price volatility will be driven more by available supply than by demand, as consumption in Europe remains relatively stable.
Hai Dang (according to S&P Global)
